In American Holocaust (1992), David Stannard estimates that some 30 to 60 million Africans died being enslaved. He claims a 50% mortality rate among new slaves while being gathered and stored in Africa, a 10% mortality among the survivors while crossing the ocean, and another 50% mortality rate in the first "seasoning" phase of slave labor. Overall, he estimates a 75-80% mortality rate in transit.
In Slavery A World History, Milton Meltzer estimates that 10 million slaves arrived in the Americas. This would be the residue after 12.5% of those shipped out from Africa died on the ocean, 4-5% died while waiting in harbor, and 33% died during the first year of seasoning.
In "The Atlantic Slave Trade and the Holocaust" (Is the Holocaust Unique, A. Greebaum, ed., 1996), Seymour Drescher estimates that 21M were enslaved, 1700-1850, of which 7M remained in slavery inside Africa. 4M died "as a direct result of enslavement". Of the 12M shipped to America, 15%, or 2M more, died in the Middle Passage and seasoning year.
Jan Rogozinski, A Brief History of the Caribbean (1994): "[A]s many as eight million Africans may have died in order to bring four million slaves to the Caribbean islands."
In The Slave Trade, Hugh Thomas estimates that 13M left African ports, and 11,328,000 arrived. Here are a few other numbers from Thomas:
No year-by-year stats, but by piecing together scattered decade stats, I figure that 5M slaves were shipped in the 18th Century.
In the chapter on African population in the Atlas of World Population History (1978), Colin McEvedy estimates that 9.5 million African slaves were imported into the Americas between 1500 and 1880. He also suggests a 15% mortality rate on the ocean.
Rummel estimates a total death toll of 17,267,000 African slaves (1451-1870)
Fredric Wertham claims that 150,000,000 Africans died of the slave trade.
Looking at all the scholarship on the subject, it looks like, at the very least, 35% of those enslaved in Africa died before they were ever put to work in America. On the other hand, at least 20% of them survived. Between these extreme possibilites (35-80%), the most likely mortality rate is 62%.
In terms of absolute numbers, the lowest possible (and only barely possible at that) death toll we can put on the trans-Atlantic slave trade is 6 million. If we assume the absolute worst, a death toll as high as 60 million is at the very edge of possibility; however, the likeliest number of deaths would fall somewhere from 15 to 20 million.
| Death Rates | Low | Likely | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seasoning | 15% | 33% | 50% |
| Arrived | 9.5M | 11M | 15M |
| Ocean Crossing | 10% | 15% | 18% |
| Africa | 20% | 33% | 50% |
| Died | 6M | 17.8M | 58M |
If 5 million slaves were shipped in the 18th Century (the busiest century, see Hugh Thomas, above), then the 18th Century death toll could be around 8.1 million. (=5/11*17.8)
Keep in mind that these numbers only count the dead among the first generation of slaves brought from Africa. Subsequent generations would contribute additional premature or unnatural deaths.
Ronald Segal, in Islam's Black Slaves, estimates the total number of African slaves shipped to the Muslim world at 11.5M-14M. This breaks down as follows:
TOTAL: 11,512,000 shipped
How many people died in all the slave harvesting by Moslems over the centuries? I hesitate to estimate, but I think we can safely assume that at least 3 people died for every 2 living slaves delivered (similar to the death rate in the Atlantic trade), which comes to about 19M deaths. Keep in mind that the data is so spotty and the margin of error so wide that we can't honestly or definitively accuse either the Christian or Moslem slave trade of being worse than the other.
Copyright © 2003 Matthew White (Matthew White's Homepage)